Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.4  15.8  16.2  14.8  13.2  13.6  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  14.0  17.0  23.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 104.6 102.3 100.1  95.7  93.6  89.4  87.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  24.0  21.0  42.0  44.0  43.0  26.0  21.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.6  16.4  15.8  16.2  14.8  13.2  13.6  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        7.4%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.2%       28.9%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       20.0%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       20.0%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%        8.2%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       21.9%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       10.6%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       10.6%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        3.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        5.4%        4.3%