Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.3  17.2  17.5  15.5  15.2  16.1  17.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  18.0  23.0  30.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 102.3 100.1  95.7  91.5  87.4  85.5  83.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  34.0  37.0  33.0  57.0  48.0  47.0  28.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  15.3  17.2  17.5  15.5  15.2  16.1  17.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        4.5%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       18.1%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       10.4%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       10.4%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        4.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       11.9%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        4.6%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        5.6%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        1.5%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        2.9%        2.4%