Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  15.6  18.1  17.8  18.4  22.3  21.4  19.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  26.0  29.0  28.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1  97.9  93.6  89.4  85.5  81.6  81.6  81.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  10.0  32.0  55.0  61.0  32.0  11.0  -5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  15.6  18.1  17.8  18.4  22.3  21.4  19.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        2.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        9.7%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.2%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        4.2%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        1.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        5.4%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        0.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%