Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  20.6  20.9  23.0  26.3  24.6  20.6  16.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  15.0  26.0  30.0  27.0  17.0  11.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  94.4  90.5  86.6  84.8  84.8  86.6  88.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  19.0  50.0  61.0  47.0  10.0  -2.0 -21.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.8  20.6  20.9  23.0  26.3  24.6  20.6  16.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%