Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.5  21.9  27.8  26.6  23.8  19.7  18.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  20.0  26.0  26.0  21.0  15.0  11.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  95.5  91.6  89.8  89.8  89.8  91.6  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  33.0  46.0  29.0  -1.0  -8.0 -29.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.7  19.5  21.9  27.8  26.6  23.8  19.7  18.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%