Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.9  24.3  25.8  22.4  19.5  16.2  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  31.0  30.0  24.0  18.0  11.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.5  93.5  91.6  89.8  89.8  91.6  95.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  41.0  39.0  14.0  -5.0 -18.0 -20.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  20.9  24.3  25.8  22.4  19.5  16.2  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        6.0%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.5%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%