Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  27.7  28.1  21.5  16.5  15.1  19.2  19.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  18.0  15.0  10.0   7.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.8  81.2  83.0  83.0  84.8  86.6  90.5  92.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 -16.0 -21.0 -38.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.2  27.7  28.1  21.5  16.5  15.1  19.2  19.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%