Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  29.9  24.7  16.1  13.3  16.8  18.4  17.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  13.0  11.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  79.4  83.0  84.8  88.5  90.5  92.4  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  24.0   1.0  -9.0 -41.0 -52.0 -26.0 -12.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.1  29.9  24.7  16.1  13.3  16.8  18.4  17.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%