Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  22.5  16.0  12.7  15.6  18.5  16.9  11.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  10.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.2  76.2  79.8  83.5  85.5  87.4  89.4  89.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -4.0 -31.0 -62.0 -58.0 -16.0 -34.0 -23.0  N  U VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.1  22.5  16.0  12.7  15.6  18.5  16.9  11.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%