Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  16.0  12.3  14.0  14.6  16.7  11.0  13.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.0  72.7  78.0  81.6  85.5  87.4  89.4  89.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -31.0 -64.0 -44.0 -24.0 -36.0 -40.0  -5.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  53.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.5  16.0  12.3  14.0  14.6  16.7  11.0  13.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%