Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  14.2  16.6  17.7  17.0  12.2  12.5  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0   9.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  78.0  83.5  85.5  87.4  89.4  91.5  91.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -38.0 -30.0 -10.0  -8.0 -12.0  20.0  61.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  56.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.8  14.2  16.6  17.7  17.0  12.2  12.5  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.2%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%