Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.6  16.5  17.0  15.0  12.3  14.7  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  83.5  87.4  89.4  91.5  93.6  93.6  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -39.0 -29.0 -12.0 -29.0 -30.0   8.0  52.0  67.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  59.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.7  13.6  16.5  17.0  15.0  12.3  14.7  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        0.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%