Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  18.4  20.0  17.8  12.8  11.6  19.3  22.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  99.4 101.5 103.6 105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0  -7.0 -26.0  -7.0   6.0  17.0  63.0  52.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  49.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  57.0  59.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  18.4  20.0  17.8  12.8  11.6  19.3  22.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%