Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    133.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1   9.0  16.4  18.1  19.3  26.5  32.8  38.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  13.0  16.0  14.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 111.5 105.5  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  34.0  36.0  64.0  47.0  44.0  15.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.1   9.0  16.4  18.1  19.3  26.5  32.8  38.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        9.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%