Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  42.0  45.2  40.4  33.9  36.4  39.1  38.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   9.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.5  84.8  79.4  72.7  69.6  69.6  71.1  72.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  36.0  52.0  63.0  82.0  45.0  30.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.7  42.0  45.2  40.4  33.9  36.4  39.1  38.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%