Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  39.3  33.7  34.4  35.4  35.3  31.1  25.6 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2  86.0  82.7  82.7  84.3  86.0  89.4  91.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  62.0  74.0  31.0  46.0  40.0 -16.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  37.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.4  39.3  33.7  34.4  35.4  35.3  31.1  25.6 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%