Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  34.7  37.2  39.4  36.2  31.2  27.3  25.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  13.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3  97.7  99.3 101.0 102.7 106.2 108.0 111.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  50.0  47.0  12.0   8.0  33.0  21.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  47.0  42.0  38.0  37.0  33.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.2  34.7  37.2  39.4  36.2  31.2  27.3  25.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%