Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.4  43.2  44.4  40.3  32.7  28.9  26.4  25.9  U VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  18.0  25.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.1  96.1  99.3 102.7 106.2 109.8 113.5 117.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  31.0   2.0  15.0  28.0  30.0  11.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.4  43.2  44.4  40.3  32.7  28.9  26.4  25.9  U VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%