Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  27.1  26.8  25.8  19.4  16.0  18.1  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  27.0  20.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  86.0  92.0 102.0 123.0  86.0  81.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.9  27.1  26.8  25.8  19.4  16.0  18.1  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       10.0%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       15.1%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        4.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%       10.1%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        2.8%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        8.0%        8.4%