Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.7  27.8  26.1  23.3  19.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  21.0  18.0  14.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 105.0 139.0 122.0 110.0 107.0 103.0 130.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.3  24.7  27.8  26.1  23.3  19.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       13.8%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        3.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        3.9%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        1.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       16.6%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        4.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        9.3%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        2.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        6.7%        8.2%