Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.7  28.6  26.2  17.0  18.7  20.8  20.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  15.0  13.0  14.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 122.0 119.6 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 121.0 126.0 138.0 130.0 114.0 136.0 105.0  F  F  F VF  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.7  26.7  28.6  26.2  17.0  18.7  20.8  20.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        5.0%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       31.7%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       15.2%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       15.2%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%        7.1%        7.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       38.5%       28.3%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%       17.1%       12.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       21.4%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%        8.0%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       12.2%       10.3%