Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  25.6  24.9  15.0  12.0  19.4  22.6  24.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  25.0  20.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 112.0 109.6 107.3 107.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0 134.0 118.0  84.0  78.0 125.0 108.0  92.0  F VF  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.1  25.6  24.9  15.0  12.0  19.4  22.6  24.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.8%       13.2%       15.5%
 25kt / 24h       45.7%       57.2%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       33.7%       44.8%       39.3%
 35kt / 24h       33.7%       44.8%       39.3%
 40kt / 24h       33.7%       27.5%       30.6%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       57.5%       46.2%
 55kt / 36h       19.3%       37.1%       28.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.5%       30.1%       26.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%       11.9%       10.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        8.3%        6.2%