Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  28.0  23.5  19.5  18.8  21.2  23.2  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  23.0  19.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 102.3 102.3 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  98.0 132.0  85.0  97.0  36.0  45.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.5  28.0  23.5  19.5  18.8  21.2  23.2  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.6%       14.5%       18.1%
 25kt / 24h       48.4%       57.3%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       32.7%       48.2%       40.5%
 35kt / 24h       32.7%       48.2%       40.5%
 40kt / 24h       32.7%       30.4%       31.5%
 45kt / 36h       30.0%       47.9%       38.9%
 55kt / 36h       14.5%       28.8%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       23.2%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        7.6%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        8.2%        5.5%