Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  23.6  20.8  24.0  24.5  26.9  33.4  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 104.6 104.6 102.3 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 126.0 122.0 104.0  83.0  82.0  78.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.7  23.6  20.8  24.0  24.5  26.9  33.4  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        4.9%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       30.3%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       18.7%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.9%       18.7%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       10.3%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       17.0%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        5.9%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        8.2%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%