Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  24.2  27.1  27.7  29.0  33.1  32.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  19.0  18.0  16.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 138.0 102.0  79.0  62.0  92.0  90.0  45.0 VF VF  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.2  24.2  27.1  27.7  29.0  33.1  32.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        4.0%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       24.4%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       14.1%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       14.1%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%        7.1%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       10.9%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        3.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        7.5%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%