Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  21.9  25.0  28.9  34.5  28.3  23.9  30.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 115.0  90.0  90.0  62.0  44.0  46.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.4  21.9  25.0  28.9  34.5  28.3  23.9  30.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        5.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       27.6%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%       17.2%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       17.2%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%        8.6%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       11.8%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        3.5%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        8.5%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%