Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  22.6  28.5  32.7  25.4  23.1  28.4  28.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 108.0  57.0  57.0  62.0  49.0  12.0  27.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.8  22.6  28.5  32.7  25.4  23.1  28.4  28.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       11.3%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.6%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        6.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%