Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  24.9  27.9  25.3  21.2  26.1  27.2  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  95.7  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  38.0  30.0  48.0  48.0  37.0  28.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.6  24.9  27.9  25.3  21.2  26.1  27.2  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        3.1%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       15.1%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        7.3%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        7.3%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        3.4%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%        7.6%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%