Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  30.9  25.4  20.9  27.4  28.7  26.5  21.2  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  93.6  85.5  79.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  56.0  74.0  39.0  30.0  21.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  30.9  25.4  20.9  27.4  28.7  26.5  21.2  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        3.9%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       21.3%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       11.7%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       11.7%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%        5.5%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%        9.3%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%