Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  38.9  33.7  33.4  33.6  30.8  34.4  32.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  11.0  12.0  14.0  13.0   8.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  95.7  85.5  78.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  64.0  57.0  40.0  45.0  50.0   3.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.6  38.9  33.7  33.4  33.6  30.8  34.4  32.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        6.0%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%