Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  38.4  42.6  40.6  32.0  28.6  25.7  22.1  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  13.0  11.0   7.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  93.6  81.6  72.7  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  41.0  38.0  55.0  52.0  18.0 -11.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.5  38.4  42.6  40.6  32.0  28.6  25.7  22.1  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%