Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  41.5  41.2  34.0  29.1  28.8  26.5  22.1  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0   7.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  87.4  74.4  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  45.0  73.0  47.0  31.0   0.0 -20.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  41.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.1  41.5  41.2  34.0  29.1  28.8  26.5  22.1  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%