Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  36.1  33.8  24.2  25.3  22.3  21.5  17.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 105.1  92.4  81.2  72.7  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  54.0  53.0   6.0  -6.0   5.0   8.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  53.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.5  36.1  33.8  24.2  25.3  22.3  21.5  17.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%