Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  31.5  25.8  27.2  23.7  21.3  18.1  14.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  11.0   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 112.3 101.5  89.8  81.0  71.5  65.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  23.0  -1.0   2.0  -9.0   4.0  10.0  -9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  45.0  45.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.3  31.5  25.8  27.2  23.7  21.3  18.1  14.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%