Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142019 190921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  27.9  29.1  23.7  22.7  18.9  15.6  12.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  12.0   9.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 122.0 110.7 100.5  91.2  82.7  75.0  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  15.0  -4.0   1.0  -3.0  20.0  10.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  39.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.7  27.9  29.1  23.7  22.7  18.9  15.6  12.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%