Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.3  26.0  26.7  29.0  28.3  21.8  25.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  33.0  34.0  36.0  38.0  42.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  84.0  78.0  62.0  58.0  52.0  81.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  26.3  26.0  26.7  29.0  28.3  21.8  25.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%        6.4%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.9%       34.8%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       19.9%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       19.9%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%        9.5%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.6%       28.0%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       11.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%       15.8%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        4.5%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%       11.1%        8.8%