Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  26.5  26.2  30.7  33.0  28.2  27.9  32.6  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  34.0  35.0  36.0  38.0  41.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  62.0  55.0  93.0  90.0 111.0 100.0  35.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.1  26.5  26.2  30.7  33.0  28.2  27.9  32.6  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.7%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       18.8%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        8.0%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        8.0%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       13.7%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        4.2%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.8%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        5.7%        5.1%