Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  28.4  34.1  33.4  30.3  30.5  26.4  25.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  37.0  39.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  48.0  75.0  98.0  72.0  53.0  57.0  35.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.9  28.4  34.1  33.4  30.3  30.5  26.4  25.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        4.8%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       22.3%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       11.4%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       11.4%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        5.1%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       14.2%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        4.5%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        8.9%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        7.0%        5.5%