Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  31.4  30.5  24.2  30.5  31.8  29.3  27.9  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  38.0  41.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  40.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  67.0 102.0  66.0  51.0  51.0  33.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.8  31.4  30.5  24.2  30.5  31.8  29.3  27.9  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        4.1%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       24.4%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       12.7%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       12.7%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        6.0%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       14.8%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        4.8%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        8.3%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        6.9%        4.7%