Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  29.1  22.1  19.5  20.4  19.0  19.3  22.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  46.0  50.0  48.0  44.0  38.0  34.0  34.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0 101.0  40.0  59.0  88.0  68.0  61.0  60.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.9  29.1  22.1  19.5  20.4  19.0  19.3  22.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.6%       10.2%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       46.7%       41.8%
 30kt / 24h       23.7%       37.3%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%       37.3%       28.5%
 40kt / 24h       18.3%       22.1%       20.2%
 45kt / 36h       26.6%       35.3%       31.0%
 55kt / 36h       12.0%       17.8%       14.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.2%       24.4%       21.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        5.2%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        9.4%        7.0%