Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  21.5  20.6  24.2  22.9  21.0  20.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  41.0  37.0  35.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0  40.0  75.0  71.0  46.0  40.0  51.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  21.5  20.6  24.2  22.9  21.0  20.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.2%       25.3%       35.7%
 25kt / 24h       58.2%       65.3%       61.8%
 30kt / 24h       46.9%       61.9%       54.4%
 35kt / 24h       46.9%       61.9%       54.4%
 40kt / 24h       39.4%       46.3%       42.8%
 45kt / 36h       37.5%       47.4%       42.5%
 55kt / 36h       21.0%       29.4%       25.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       30.7%       25.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        7.6%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%       11.4%        7.6%