Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  23.0  21.4  20.5  17.0  14.9  11.7  12.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  41.0  35.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  77.0  71.0  51.0  33.0  35.0  44.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.2  23.0  21.4  20.5  17.0  14.9  11.7  12.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.7%       10.8%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       42.3%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       23.1%       33.7%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       20.4%       33.7%       27.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.4%       22.1%       17.8%
 45kt / 36h       26.3%       25.2%       25.8%
 55kt / 36h       11.2%       11.1%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       25.7%       22.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        4.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        6.1%        5.1%