Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  19.5  16.8  13.7  14.4  12.1  11.1  14.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  33.0  29.0  29.0  31.0  21.0  16.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  90.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  86.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  25.0  10.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  19.5  16.8  13.7  14.4  12.1  11.1  14.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        5.2%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       30.3%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       20.9%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       20.9%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       11.3%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       17.4%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%        6.4%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%       18.7%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.4%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        4.9%        5.6%