Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  12.8  12.9  15.3  14.2  11.3  16.1  13.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  31.0  25.0  17.0  14.0  11.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  95.1  86.5  80.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  62.0  37.0  52.0  44.0   8.0   7.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  12.8  12.9  15.3  14.2  11.3  16.1  13.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        8.3%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       40.3%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       32.3%       22.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       32.3%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       17.5%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.7%       22.4%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.6%        9.2%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       16.6%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        2.6%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.9%        2.9%