Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.8  14.9  16.4  16.2  16.3  15.8  18.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  30.0  22.0  15.0  11.0   6.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  88.6  78.5  71.2  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  31.0  36.0  23.0   3.0   5.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  14.8  14.9  16.4  16.2  16.3  15.8  18.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        9.6%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       37.4%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       29.0%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       29.0%       21.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       15.9%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       16.3%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        6.9%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        6.8%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%