Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.1  15.5  11.2  15.4  14.7  19.2  22.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  21.0  15.0  11.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 102.0  86.5  78.5  69.4  62.7  53.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  39.0  44.0  18.0  13.0  17.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.9  16.1  15.5  11.2  15.4  14.7  19.2  22.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%       11.6%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.0%       38.4%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       31.5%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       31.5%       21.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       15.3%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       17.4%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        8.0%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        4.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        1.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%