Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  12.1   9.1  11.8  14.3  15.7  17.8  14.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  20.0  17.0  13.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  99.3  87.9  77.4  64.4  56.1  47.2  40.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  30.0  21.0   5.0   7.0  17.0  24.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.3  12.1   9.1  11.8  14.3  15.7  17.8  14.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.9%       20.8%       19.9%
 25kt / 24h       30.6%       47.7%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       23.7%       43.9%       33.8%
 35kt / 24h       22.6%       43.9%       33.2%
 40kt / 24h       16.1%       24.2%       20.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%       21.3%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        8.3%       11.4%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        4.4%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%