Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  12.4  13.3  17.2  22.1  24.8  24.0  21.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  12.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  76.5  66.6  59.4  52.7  46.5  38.0  28.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  27.0  17.0   5.0  53.0  35.0   0.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  39.0  35.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  12.4  13.3  17.2  22.1  24.8  24.0  21.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.9%       22.3%       26.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       31.5%       27.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.8%       26.5%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       20.6%       26.5%       23.5%
 40kt / 24h       16.3%       13.0%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       10.6%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        5.1%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%