Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  20.4  27.1  35.9  44.6  49.6  47.6  51.0  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  29.0  31.0  34.0  27.0  25.0  21.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   3.0   6.0  47.0   0.0   7.0   0.0  15.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  44.0  43.0  37.0  36.0  35.0  33.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.2  20.4  27.1  35.9  44.6  49.6  47.6  51.0  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.7%       14.1%       15.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       27.7%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       20.5%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h       16.0%       20.5%       18.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%       12.2%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        4.4%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%