Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152019 190921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  30.8  35.8  41.4  43.8  46.4  47.9  57.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  33.0   4.0 -12.0  11.0   0.0  19.0  45.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  43.0  39.0  35.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.3  30.8  35.8  41.4  43.8  46.4  47.9  57.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%